"Statistical Analysis of Extremes in Geophysical Science"

Statistical Analysis of Extremes in Geophysical Science Reading/Working Group

Topics for this group may include:

• Extreme-value statistical theory
• Extremes in meteorology and/or climatology
• Societal impacts of extreme weather events
• Forecast verification for extreme events
• Software for statistics of extremes

We are currently doing a short series on large-scale indicators for severe weather.

History of this Group

This group was started as a reading group by Philippe Naveau at the University of Colorado here in Boulder, Colorado in 2003 to augment a course he was teaching at the time on Extreme Value Analysis. Rick Katz continued the group here at NCAR for a few months, and then after a short hiatus, the group was re-formed in 2005 by Eric Gilleland at NCAR with help from Rick Katz and Dan Cooley. The idea at this time was to be a reading and working group with a focus on connecting extreme value analysis and possible applications between atmospheric scientists and statisticians. The group has evolved over time since then, and is now mostly a reading and seminar group, but still with the same goal.

Reading Group Schedule (2013)

The next scheduled meeting for this group is TBD

Paper/Seminar	Time/Place	Presenter	Presentation slides (if any)
IMAGe Brown Bag Seminar: "Exploring Multi-Annual Regimes in Total and Extreme Argentinian Precipitation"	Tuesday, 19 March 2013 at Noon/ML-Chapman	Mari Jones	Abstract text
Series on Severe Storm Environments
Monaghan, A. J., D. L. Rife, J. O. Pinto, C. A. Davis, and J. R. Hannan, 2010. Global precipitation extremes associated with diurnally-varying low-level jets. J. Climate, 23, 5065 - 5084.	Friday, 12 April 2013 at 10:00am/FL3-1021	Andy Monaghan	-
Trapp, R.J., Diffenbaugh, N.S., Gluhovsky, A., 2009. Transient response of severe thunderstorm forcing to elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. Geophys. Res. Lett., 36(1): L01703, 6 pp., doi: 10.1029/2008GL036203.	Wednesday, 27 February 2013 at 3:00pm/FL3-1021	Eric Gilleland	-
Previous Reading Group Meetings
2011 schedule
2009 schedule
2008 schedule
2007 schedule
2006 schedule
2005 schedule

Lists from other sources

[Papers relating extreme value theory to climate change from Rick Katz]

Some Paper Ideas

A beer glass () by a paper indicates papers for upcoming sessions.

Chandler, RE. 2005. On the use of generalized linear models for interpreting climate variability. Environmetrics 16(7):699--715.

Coles S, JA Tawn. 1996. Modelling Extremes of the Areal Rainfall Process. J.R. Statist. Soc., Series B 58(2):329--347.

Fuhrer J, M Beniston, A Fischlin, C Frei, S Goyette, K Jasper, and C Phister (2006). Climate risks and their impact on agriculture and forests in Switzerland. Climate Change 79:79--102 doi 10.1007/s10584-006-9106-6.

Huntingford C, Jones RG, Prudhomme C, Lamb R, Gash JHC, and Jones DA. 2003. Regional climate-model predictions of extreme rainfall for a changing climate. Q.J.R. Meteorol. Soc. 129:1607--1621.

Marsh, P.T., Brooks, H.E., Karoly, D.J., 2007. Assessment of the severe weather environment in North America simulated by a global climate model. Atmospheric Science Letters, 8 (4): 100 - 106.

Marsh, P.T., Brooks, H.E., Karoly, D.J., 2009. Preliminary investigation into the severe thunderstorm environment of Europe simulated by the community climate system model 3. Atmospheric Research, 93 (1 - 3): 607 - 618.

Turkman, K.F., M.A. Amaral Turkman, and J.M. Pereira, 2010. Asymptotic models and inferences for extremes of spatio-temporal data. Extremes, 13:375--397.

Westra, S. and S.A. Sisson, 2011. Detection of non-stationarity in precipitation extremes using a max-stable process model. J. Hydrol., 406, 119--128. doi:10.1016/j.hydrol.2011.06.014

Contact

To subscribe to this reading/seminar group's email list [click here].^* It is also a good idea to send an email to Eric Gilleland to explain who you are and why you want to be on the list to help protect against spam.

^*No information is kept except your email address, and only to keep you informed about the group (meeting announcements, schedule/web changes, etc.). If you decide you do not want to be on the list, or you have been put on the list erroneously, send Eric Gilleland an email requesting to be taken off of the list.