Eric Gilleland


  • About
  • Education
  • Publications
  • Presentations
  • Software
  • Short Courses
  • Visits
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Welcome by my web site. I am a Project Scientist in NCAR's Research Applications Laboratory. My main research interests are spatial statistics, forecast verification methods and extreme value analysis.

Eric Gilleland, Ph.D. (CV)
Project Scientist
Weather Systems Assessment Program (WSAP)
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)

National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA

Phone:  (303)  497-2849   Fax:   (303)  497-2729   e:

*Dissertation Title: "Statistical models for quantifying the spatial distribution of seasonally derived ozone standards." (The data are a subset of the data found here, but note that the location is subject to change without my knowing it).

Advisers: Douglas W. Nychka and Thomas C.M. Lee

While working on the Ph.D. degree, I was a Research Assistant with NCAR's Geophysical Statistics Project (GSP). GSP is now part of the Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe -- French pronunciation).

Click here for a list of all publications.

Recent Publications

Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, L. Kaatz, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland and J. Halley Gotway. Statistics of Multi-year Droughts and Pluvials from the Method for Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE). Submitted to International Journal of Climatology on 22 February 2017.

Gilleland, E., R. W. Katz, and P. Naveau. Quantifying the risk of extreme events under climate change. Submitted to Chance (invited paper) on 24 January 2017.

Abatan, A. A., W. J. Gutowski, Jr., C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, L. Buja, R. G. Bullock, T. L. Fowler, E. Gilleland, J. Halley Gotway, and L. Kaatz, 2017. Multi-year droughts and pluvials over upper Colorado River basin and associated circulations. J. Hydrometeorology, 18, 799 - 818, DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-16-0125.1.

Ekström, M. and Gilleland, E., 2017. Assessing convection permitting resolutions of WRF for the purpose of water resource impact assessment and vulnerability work; a southeast Australian case study. Water Resour. Res., 53 (1), 726 - 743, DOI: 10.1002/2016WR019545.

Gilleland, E., 2017. A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for false alarms, misses, and overall patterns. Weather Forecast., 32 (1), 187 - 198, DOI: 10.1175/WAF-D-16-0134.1.

Gilleland, E., 2016. Computing Software. Chapter 25 In Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications. Edts. Dipak K. Dey and Jun Yan, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Flordia, U.S.A., pp. 505 - 515.

Gilleland, E., M. Bukovsky, C. L. Williams, S. McGinnis, C. M. Ammann, B. G. Brown, and L. O. Mearns, 2016. Evaluating NARCCAP model performance for frequencies of severe-storm environments. Advances in Statistical Climatology, Meteorology and Oceanography, 2 (2), 137--153, DOI: 10.5194/ascmo-2-137-2016.

Gilleland, E. and R. W. Katz, 2016. extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R. Journal of Statistical Software, 72 (8), 1 - 39, DOI: 10.18637/jss.v072.i08.

Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W., 2016. in2extremes: Into the R Package extremes - Extreme Value Analysis for Weather and Climate Applications. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-523+STR, 102 pp., DOI: 10.5065/D65T3HP2.

Gilleland, E., F. Pappenberger, B. G. Brown, E. E. Ebert, and D. Richardson, 2016. Verification of meteorological forecasts for hydrological applications. In Handbook of Hydrometeorological Ensemble Forecasting, Edts. Duan, Q., F. Pappenberger, J. Thielen, A. Wood, H. L. Cloke, and J. C. Schaake, Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, DOI: doi:10.1007/978-3-642-40457-3_4-1.

Shen, L., L. J. Mickley, and E. Gilleland, 2016. Impact of increasing heatwaves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multi-model analysis using extreme value theory. Geophysical Research Letters, 43 (8), 4017 - 4025, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068432.

Click here for a list of all presentations

Recent Presentations

Verifying NARCCAP Models for Severe-Storm Environments. 3 March 2017, Statistical Sciences and Operations Research Department, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, U.S.A. (pdf).

Statistical Applications for Severe Storm Environments. 17 February 2017, Università degli Studi di Torino, Turin, Italy (pdf)

Evaluating NARCCAP models for severe storm environment variables. 24 January 2017, 97th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, 22 - 26 January 2017, Seattle, Washington, U.S.A. (pdf)

Towards finding trends in extreme values of precipitation: A preliminary Analysis. 24 October 2016, STATMOS Workshop on Climate Extremes, 23 - 25 October 2016, State College, Pennsylvania, U.S.A. (invited talk, pdf)

Evaluating Severe-Storm Environment Variables from the North American Climate Change Assessment Program Climate Models. 17 October 2016, Mathematical and Statistical Sciences Department, University of Colorado, Denver, Colorado, U.S.A. (pdf).

The spatial prediction comparison test. 6 October 2016, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom (pdf).

A new characterization in the spatial verification framework for average distance false alarms and misses. 3 October, 2016. 2016 SPECS General Assembly, 3 - 4 October 2016, Exeter, United Kingdom (pdf).

Capitalizing on the asymmetry of the Mean Error Distance. 22 September 2016. 2nd MesoVICT Workshop, 21 - 23 September, Bologna, Italy (pdf).

SpatialVx. 21 September 2016. 2nd MesoVICT Workshop, 21 - 23 September, Bologna, Italy (pdf).

Evaluating Climate Models. 16 September 2016. 16th EMS Annual Meeting and 11th European Conference on Applied Climatology, 12 - 16 September 2016, Trieste, Italy (pdf).

Evaluating Climate Models. 1 August 2016. American Statistical Association (ASA) 2016 Joint Statistical Meetings (JSM), 31 July to 4 August 2016, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A. (pdf).

Information page on Software for Extreme Value Theory originally created by Alec Stephenson and currently maintained by me.

Software I either authored, co-authored, currently maintain, or have some other sort of association with.

R packages

distillery: This is a very simple package with some useful method functions used by extRemes (>= 2.0) and SpatialVx (>=0.1-6).

extRemes (Version >= 2.0) is command-line code extreme value analysis.

in2extRemes: point-and-click software operating some of the functionality included in extRemes.

ismev: extreme value analysis functions ported from S by Alec Stephenson, and originally written by Janet Heffernan, that accompany the EVA text book by Stuart Coles.

RadioSonde: software for creating skew-T diagrams and plots with wind barbs.

smoothie: software for applying the convolution theorem with the fast Fourier transform to smooth a two-dimensional gridded spatial field or image (pdf manual).

SpatialVx: software for doing spatial weather forecast verification.

verification: routines predominantly written by Matt Pocernich for performing weather forecast verification.


MET: software package (based on C++) for forecast verification.

Short Courses

9th International Extreme Value Analysis Conference Satellite Workshop on Statistical Computing for Extremes, 14 June 2015, Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Univariate part: Presentation slides, pdf, Practice Problems, pdf)

Introduction to R, Siparcs workshop, 20 May 2015, (pdf presentation slides, practice problems, which use the data RedRiverPortRoyalTN.dat).

WCRP-ITCP Summer School on Attribution and Prediction of Extreme Events. 21 July - 1 August 2014, Trieste, Italy. (Introductory slides on stationary EVA: Part I: block maxima, Part II: peaks over threshold, Introductory slides on R and extRemes >= 2.0, and some practice problems). Journal of Weather and Climate Extremes papers from summer school.

Statistical Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes, AMS 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2 February 2014, Atlanta, Georgia

Introduction to R, Siparcs/HPC workshop, 21 May 2013, (pdf slides, R scripts)

Short course: An introduction to the analysis of extreme values using R and extRemes. Short Course, Graybill VIII/6th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 22 - 26 June 2009

Intense course for young researchers on R Statistical software for climate research with an introduction to extreme value analysis, Interdisciplinary Workshop: Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications, and the role of statistics Workshop. Preluna Hotel and Spa, Sliema, Malta. 16 - 17 March 2009


22 February - 8 March 2017. Department of Statistical Sciences and Operations Research, Virginia Commonwealth University, Richmond, Virginia, U.S.A.

3 - 6 October 2016. Met Office and Mathematics Department, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom.

17 April 2014. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, U.S.A.

12 - 14 September 2011. Shell Technology Center, Houston, Texas, U.S.A.

5 - 6 October 2009. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-CNRS, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France.

21 October to 3 November 2007. Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
    Seminar: Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE): A features-based spatial forecast verification technique (pdf), 26 October 2008.


Associate Editor for Monthly Weather Review

Committees and Projects


STATMOS (NCAR node director)

AMS Probability and Statistics Committee (chair)

Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison in Complex Terrain (organizing committee)


Spatial Forecast Verification Inter-Comparison Project (organizing committee)

Conference/Workshop Organization

30th Conference on Climate Variability and Change (CVC), 24th Conference on Probability & Statistics, and 16th Conference on Artificial Intelligence (AI), joint with the ENVR section of the American Statistical Association (ASA), 28 - 29 July 2017, Baltimore, Maryland, U.S.A. (co-chair)

4th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. 25 - 26 September 2014, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (co-chair)

2011 ASP Colloquium on "Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change" (organizing committee)

4th Annual UCAR/NCAR Early Career Scientists Assembly (ECSA) Junior Faculty Forum on Future Scientific Directions, 1-3 August 2006, Boulder, Colorado (organizing chair)

2014 Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

2010 UCAR Scientific and Technical Advancement Award

History of the English Language Presentations

Seminar presentation for NCAR's English as a Second Language (ESL) group on origins of English: English--It could have been worse (pdf), 14 May 2008.

Presentation on Frisian (and its connection to English) for IBM's 2009 Take Our Children to Work Day (pdf).


A blog about the British TV show, Doc Martin by Karen Gilleland

Piter Wilkens is one of the few singer/songwriter's to sing almost exclusively in the West Frisian language, Frisian (he has at least one song in Leeuwardish; a town Frisian dialect). The language was considered the closest living language to English until it was decided that Scots should be considered a separate language (rather than dialect).