Eric Gilleland


  • About
  • Education
  • Publications
  • Presentations
  • Software
  • Short Courses
  • Visits
  • Synergy
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Welcome by my web site. I am a Project Scientist in NCAR's Research Applications Laboratory. My main research interests are spatial statistics, forecast verification methods and extreme value analysis.

Eric Gilleland, Ph.D. (CV)
Project Scientist
Joint Numerical Testbed (JNT)
Research Applications Laboratory (RAL)

National Center for Atmospheric Research
P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA

Phone:  (303)  497-2849   Fax:   (303)  497-2729   e:

*Dissertation Title: "Statistical models for quantifying the spatial distribution of seasonally derived ozone standards." (The data are a subset of the data found here, but note that the location is subject to change without my knowing it).

Advisers: Douglas W. Nychka and Thomas C.M. Lee

While working on the Ph.D. degree, I was a Research Assistant with NCAR's Geophysical Statistics Project (GSP). GSP is now part of the Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences (IMAGe -- French pronunciation).

Click here for a list of all publications.

Recent Publications

Shen, L., L. J. Mickley, and E. Gilleland. Impact of increasing heatwaves on U.S. ozone episodes in the 2050s: Results from a multi-model analysis using extreme value theory. Accepted to Geophysical Research Letters on 15 March 2016, DOI: 10.1002/2016GL068432.

Gilleland, E. and R. W. Katz. extRemes 2.0: An Extreme Value Analysis Package in R. Submitted to Journal of Statistical Software on 3 June 2014. Conditionally accepted on 9 June 2015 (pdf).

Gilleland, E., 2016. Computing Software. Chapter 25 In Extreme Value Modeling and Risk Analysis: Methods and Applications. Edts. Dipak K. Dey and Jun Yan, CRC Press, Boca Raton, Flordia, U.S.A., pp. 505 - 515.

Gilleland, E. and Katz, R. W., 2016. in2extremes: Into the R Package extremes - Extreme Value Analysis for Weather and Climate Applications. NCAR Technical Note, NCAR/TN-523+STR, 102 pp., DOI: 10.5065/D65T3HP2.

Bador, M., P. Naveau, E. Gilleland, M. Sànchez, and T. Arivelo, 2015. Spatial clustering of summer temperature maxima from the CNRM-CM5 climate model ensembles and E-OBS over Europe. J. Weather and Climate Extremes, 9, 17 - 24

Gilleland, E. and Ribatet, M., 2015. Reinsurance and extremal events. In: Computational Actuarial Science with R. Ed. A. Charpentier, Chapman & Hall/CRC the R series, Boca Raton, Florida, U.S.A., pp. 257 - 286.

Gilleland, E. and G. Roux, 2015. A New Approach to Testing Forecast Predictive Accuracy. Meteorol. Appl., 22 (3), 534 - 543 DOI: 10.1002/met.1485.

Click here for a list of all presentations

Recent Presentations

Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Overview. American Statistical Association (ASA) Co/Wy Chapter Spring Annual Meeting, 15 April 2016, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.

Evaluation of weather and climate forecasts: A 2016 perspective. 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 14 January 2016, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. (invited talk, pdf).

Testing the tests: A look at size and power for hypothesis tests of competing forecasts. 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 23rd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 13 January 2016, New Orleans, Louisiana, U.S.A. (invited talk, pdf).

Conditional Extreme Value Analysis for Severe Storm Environments. 20 November 2015, NCAR/IMAGe ToY seminar, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (invited talk, pdf).

Which forecast is better? 10 November 2015, Big Data & Environment Workshop, 10 - 13 November 2015, Buenos Aires, Argentina (invited talk, pdf).

A new verification method for assessing competing forecast performance with timing errors. 10 September 2015, 15th EMS Annual Meeting and 12th European Conference on Applications of Meteorology (ECAM), 7 - 11 September 2015, Sofia, Bulgaria (pdf).

Severe Storm Environments and Extreme Value Analysis. 15 June 2015, 9th International Extreme Value Analysis Conference, 15 - 19 June 2015, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A. (pdf).

Information page on Software for Extreme Value Theory originally created by Alec Stephenson and currently maintained by me.

Software I either authored, co-authored, currently maintain, or have some other sort of association with.

R packages

distillery: This is a very simple package with some useful method functions used by extRemes (>= 2.0) and SpatialVx (>=0.1-6).

extRemes (Version >= 2.0) is command-line code extreme value analysis.

in2extRemes: point-and-click software operating some of the functionality included in extRemes.

ismev: extreme value analysis functions ported from S by Alec Stephenson, and originally written by Janet Heffernan, that accompany the EVA text book by Stuart Coles.

RadioSonde: software for creating skew-T diagrams and plots with wind barbs.

smoothie: software for applying the convolution theorem with the fast Fourier transform to smooth a two-dimensional gridded spatial field or image (pdf manual).

SpatialVx: software for doing spatial weather forecast verification.

verification: routines predominantly written by Matt Pocernich for performing weather forecast verification.


MET: software package (based on C++) for forecast verification.

Short Courses

9th International Extreme Value Analysis Conference Satellite Workshop on Statistical Computing for Extremes, 14 June 2015, Ann Arbor, Michigan. (Univariate part: Presentation slides, pdf, Practice Problems, pdf)

Introduction to R, Siparcs workshop, 20 May 2015, (pdf presentation slides, practice problems, which use the data RedRiverPortRoyalTN.dat).

WCRP-ITCP Summer School on Attribution and Prediction of Extreme Events. 21 July - 1 August 2014, Trieste, Italy. (Introductory slides on stationary EVA: Part I: block maxima, Part II: peaks over threshold, Introductory slides on R and extRemes >= 2.0, and some practice problems). Journal of Weather and Climate Extremes papers from summer school.

Statistical Analysis of Weather and Climate Extremes, AMS 22nd Conference on Probability and Statistics in the Atmospheric Sciences, 2 February 2014, Atlanta, Georgia

Introduction to R, Siparcs/HPC workshop, 21 May 2013, (pdf slides, R scripts)

Short course: An introduction to the analysis of extreme values using R and extRemes. Short Course, Graybill VIII/6th International Conference on Extreme Value Analysis. Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado. 22 - 26 June 2009

Intense course for young researchers on R Statistical software for climate research with an introduction to extreme value analysis, Interdisciplinary Workshop: Effects of climate change: coastal systems, policy implications, and the role of statistics Workshop. Preluna Hotel and Spa, Sliema, Malta. 16 - 17 March 2009


17 April 2014. Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Delaware, Newark, Delaware, U.S.A.

12-14 September 2011. Shell Technology Center, Houston, Texas, U.S.A.

5-6 October 2009. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL-CNRS, Gif-Sur-Yvette, France.

21 October to 3 November 2007. Mathematical Statistics, Centre for Mathematical Sciences, Lund University, Lund, Sweden.
    Seminar: Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation (MODE): A features-based spatial forecast verification technique (pdf), 26 October 2008.


Associate Editor for Monthly Weather Review

Committees and Projects


STATMOS (NCAR node director)

AMS Probability and Statistics Committee (chair)

Mesoscale Verification Intercomparison in Complex Terrain (organizing committee)


Spatial Forecast Verification Inter-Comparison Project (organizing committee)

Conference/Workshop Organization

4th International Workshop on Climate Informatics. 25 - 26 September 2014, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A. (co-chair)

2011 ASP Colloquium on "Statistical Assessment of Extreme Weather Phenomena under Climate Change" (organizing committee)

4th Annual UCAR/NCAR Early Career Scientists Assembly (ECSA) Junior Faculty Forum on Future Scientific Directions, 1-3 August 2006, Boulder, Colorado (organizing chair)

2014 Editors' Citation for Excellence in Refereeing for Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

2010 UCAR Scientific and Technical Advancement Award

History of the English Language Presentations

Seminar presentation for NCAR's English as a Second Language (ESL) group on origins of English: English--It could have been worse (pdf), 14 May 2008.

Presentation on Frisian (and its connection to English) for IBM's 2009 Take Our Children to Work Day (pdf).


A blog about the British TV show, Doc Martin by Karen Gilleland

Piter Wilkens is one of the few singer/songwriter's to sing almost exclusively in the West Frisian language, Frisian (he has at least one song in Leeuwardish; a town Frisian dialect). The language was considered the closest living language to English until it was decided that Scots should be considered a separate language (rather than dialect).