Overview

The spread of human plague in northwest Uganda is a major problem.  In addition to social and ecological factors, climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation play an important role in the transmission of plague, which is spread by fleas.  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Division of Vector Borne Infectious Diseases, is working to understand and model plague dynamics in Uganda.  High spatial resolution climate data are required for the modeling effort, but are not currently available over Uganda due to a sparse observational network and a lack of model datasets that resolve the complex climatic gradients in the region.  RAL will employ its modeling and statistical resources to provide high-quality downscaled climate data to meet these ends. 

Human plague is transmitted by fleas that travel on rats and other rodents. During heavy rains and flooding, plague outbreaks often occur because rats leave rural areas to seek shelter in villages. RAL researchers are collaborating with scientists at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop models to predict plague outbreaks that are caused by climatic factors.