Spatial Forecast Verification Methods Inter-Comparison Project
About the ICP
Recent advancements in weather forecasting and observational systems have created great improvements in resolution and prediction. However, use of standard verification practices often indicate poorer performance because, among other things, they are unable to account for small-scale noise or discriminate types of errors such as displacement in time and/or space (see papers in the references section). This issue has motivated recent research and development of many new verification techniques for handling spatial forecasts. The intent of this project is to compare the various newly proposed methods to give the user information about which methods are appropriate for which types of data, forecasts and desired forecast utility.Research Lead: Eric Gilleland
News
The ICP Spring 2008 workshop was held on 14-15 April 2008 in Boulder, Colorado, U.S.A.
Version 1.1 of MET -- Model Evaluation Tools has been released! The software is designed to "be a highly-configurable, state-of-the-art suite of verification tools."
New and soon to be published papers on spatial forecast verification
Ebert EE, 2008. Fuzzy verification of high resolution gridded forecasts: A review and proposed framework. Meteorol. Appl., 15:51--64. DOI: 10.1002/met.25 (Available at http://www.ecmwf.int/newsevents/meetings/workshops/2007/jwgv/METspecialissueemail.pdf)
Gilleland E, TCM Lee, J Halley Gotway, RG Bullock, and BG Brown, 2008. Computationally efficient spatial forecast verification using Baddeley's Δ image metric. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136(5):1747--1757.
Keil C and GC Craig, 2007. A displacement-based error measure applied in a regional ensemble forecasting system. Mon. Wea. Rev., 135:3248--3259.
Mesinger, F., 2008: Bias adjusted precipitation threat scores. Adv. Geosciences 16:137--143. (Available at: http://www.adv-geosci.net/16/index.html)
Mittermaier, MP, 2008. Introducing uncertainty of radar-rainfall estimates to the verification of mesoscale model precipitation forecasts. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 8:1--16 (Available at: http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/8/445/2008/nhess-8-445-2008.html)
Roberts NM and HW Lean, 2008. Scale-selective verification of rainfall accumulations from high-resolution forecasts of convective events. Mon. Wea. Rev. 136:78--96.
Wernli H, M Paulat, M Hagen, and C Frei. 2008 (in press). SAL--a novel quality measure for the verification of quantitative precipitation forecasts. (Available at http://ams.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-toc-aop&issn=1520-0493).
