Background
Approximately 1.57 million accidents occur each year in poor weather on the nation's roads. An estimated 713,000 injuries and 7,300 deaths per year (based on an 8-year average) occur, creating an annual economic toll of approximately $42B. Weather plays a role in about 28% of the total crashes and 19% of the total fatalities. Weather also reduces capacity and significantly impacts efficiency, triggering congestion, particularly on roads operating near capacity. Delay caused by adverse weather has reached nearly 1 billion hours per year. Research and development efforts at RAL are focused on bringing the surface transportation and weather communities together to improve the performance of surface transportation weather providers in improving the safety and efficiency of travel.
Current Activities
Winter Maintenance Decision Support System Development:
MDSS display covering west Denver plow routes (click on image to enlarge). Users have the ability to view weather and road condition predictions and treatment recommendations for specific road segments.
An example of NCAR’s proactive role in surface transportation is the development of the Federal Highway Administration winter Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) Project. Since 1999, NCAR/RAL has led a team of national laboratories in the development of the MDSS prototype, a unique data fusion system that provides real-time treatment guidance (e.g., treatment times, chemical choices, rates, and locations) specific to maintenance routes for winter maintenance decision makers. The system integrates weather and road condition data, numerical weather prediction model output, chemical concentration algorithms, and anti-icing and deicing rules of practice.
In 2005 the MDSS effort was focused on predicting weather and road conditions in the complex terrain of Colorado. The Road Weather Forecast System (RWFS) was configured to utilize numerical weather prediction data from several models including NAM, GFS, MM5, and WRF. The pavement prediction heat balance model was refined to handle surface and subsurface data generated from Colorado road authorities. The "Rules of Practice" module was enhanced to provide guidance on the use of several new anti- and deicing chemicals and tailored to reflect winter snow and ice control operational practices for multiple departments of transportation.
A thorough verification effort was conducted resulting in a detailed Technical Performance Assessment Report. The report highlights research challenges associated with predicting weather and road conditions in complex terrain such as complexities related to land surface modeling, use of pavement surface and subsurface data, prediction of precipitation amount, type and rate, utility of insulation data, data fusion, and statistical post-processing of model data
Recent Accomplishments
MDSS treatment selector page for highway segment at Interstate 70 and Genesse west of Denver (click on image to enlarge).
Accomplishments in 2005 ranged from the development and implementation of new scientific and engineering technologies to work with a large stakeholder group, state DOTs and industry representatives to implement MDSS capabilities nationwide. More specific accomplishments include:
- MDSS technologies were significantly enhanced by improving pavement (roadway and bridge deck) temperature prediction.
- The RWFS data fusion system was refined to better handle extreme events using a model error correction scheme.
- A road and bridge frost potential product was developed that incorporates uncertainty in pavement and water vapor prediction.
- The snow and ice control rules of practice logic was expanded to handle a wider variety of weather and road conditions, and winter maintenance practices resulting in more accurate treatment recommendations. .
- MDSS Version-4.0 software was successfully transferred to the road weather community.
- The 6th MDSS Stakeholder Meeting (120 participants) was conducted at NCAR in October 2005. One-hundred twenty participants, representing State DOTs, commercial weather providers, universities, national labs, and the U.S. DOT, discussed the status of MDSS development, results of the Colorado field demonstration, and the technology transfer progress.
- Through an aggressive technology transfer process, approximately 10 State DOTs began the process of implementing MDSS technologies in 2005 and several commercial weather service companies began developing MDSS-related product lines.
Plans for 2006
The MDSS will continue to be developed and validated in 2006 using Colorado as a test bed. In addition, RAL, working with the FHWA and the automotive industry, will begin to develop concepts and explore the feasibility of utilizing vehicle data to detect and report weather and road condition hazards as part of the FHWA Vehicle Infrastructure Integration Program. RAL will work with automobile manufacturers to understand vehicle data elements, processing requirements, quality assessment, post processing, and accuracy requirements. Using vehicles as probes for weather and road condition information will be evaluated by teams of surface transportation professionals led by RAL.
RAL will also continue to provide input and feedback to the FHWA on the development of the Nationwide Surface Transportation Weather Detection and Forecast System Initiative known as the Clarus Initiative. In 2005 an operational concept document was developed and detailed design specifications were prepared for the Clarus System by a national team of researchers. In 2006 RAL staff members will continue to participate on various Clarus Task Forces charged with overall system development and demonstrations.
RAL staff will continue to provide national leadership in surface transportation weather by participating in surface transportation weather workshops, conferences, training programs, and committees, including the new Transportation Research Board (TRB) Surface Transportation Weather Task Force, American Meteorological Society (AMS) Surface Transportation Weather and Intelligent Transportation System Committee, FHWA Clarus Management Committee, and Intelligent Transportation Society of America (ITSA) Weather Information and Applications Special Interest Group. Active participants in these activities include R. Wagoner, B. Mahoney, and K. Petty.