Background
The U.S. public and economy is directly or indirectly affected by adverse weather conditions on a daily basis. All sectors of the economy are in some manner influenced by weather conditions that, if identified and/or predicted more accurately, could reduce economic risks and improve personal safety resulting in billions of dollars of savings across the nation annually. Although the financial impact of weather information and adverse weather on many of these economic sectors has only been loosely documented over the years, it is safe to argue that the overall impact of weather on the U.S. economy and personal safety is in the 100s of billions of dollars annually. Yet no definitive assessments of the benefits across specific sectors have been performed, or the information generated from previous studies is hard to locate and synthesize.
The Societal Impacts program (SIP), funded by NOAA’s U.S. Weather Research Program (USWRP) and NCAR, serves as a focal point for advancing a closer relationship between weather researchers, operational forecasters, relevant end-users, and social scientists concerned with the impacts of weather on a variety of segments of society. SIP activities include primary research, support for external research, outreach and education, and development and support for the community addressing the societal impacts of weather and weather information. SIP researchers in NCAR include participants from RAL, ISSE, and MMM and from COMET in the UCAR Office of Programs.
Current Activities and Accomplishments
Research: As part of the Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting (QPF) project, SIP staff reviewed previous studies addressing the societal value of (improved) QPFs and identified gaps in the existing knowledge. Research was also initiated on the Probabilistic Weather Forecast project to explore the communication, understanding, and societal value of improved probabilistic weather forecasts as compared to deterministic forecasts and to identify gaps in the existing knowledge. In the Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment, economic time-series data were analyzed to identify overall sensitivity of US economic sectors to weather variability.
Efforts continue to develop the Digital Library on Societal Impacts which will make research results, including case studies, web sites, decision support tools, and other resources, accessible to the appropriate user communities through a web based archive.
The SIP supported the activities of the Hurricane Forecast Socio-Economic Working Group (HFSEWG), an ad hoc collaboration of academic, private sector, and government representatives. The hurricane group works to improve society’s understanding and use of hurricane forecasts, as well as to inform the weather community of user impacts from, and needs and values for, current and improved hurricane forecasts. SIP conducted a workshop in Pomona, CA in February 2005, bringing together 30 experts from the physical and social sciences to develop an initial compilation of priority social science research needs (Draft HFSEWG Workshop Report). Building on this effort, two sessions were held at the CU Natural Hazards Workshop in Boulder, CO in July 2005 to reach a broader community of researchers, and a writing workshop was held in Boulder, CO in August 2005 to develop a summary paper on the social science research agenda. SIP staff also met with several agencies to pursue potential funding sources for the research being advocated.
In 2005, SIP staff in collaboration with two visiting scientists, E. Gruntfest and J. Demuth, developed and implemented the Weather And Society*Integrated Studies (WAS*IS) Workshop and Short Course. This effort aims to empower practitioners, researchers, and stakeholders to forge new relationships and to use new tools for more effective socio-economic applications and evaluations of weather products. Through the WAS*IS workshop, scheduled in two parts in November 2005 and March 2006, a “critical mass of people” who understand social science methods is being created to help ensure that social and economic impacts become an integral part of new project development rather than a cursory add-on after the research is completed. The call for participants for the workshop resulted in more than 100 formal applications. Of these, 23 outstanding candidates from universities, federal agencies and research institutions were selected to participate. Results from the November workshop can be found at: http://www.rap.ucar.edu/was_is/
Working with COMET, the SIP also supported the writing of the THORPEX International Outreach Plan, a blueprint for characterizing how the capacity of meteorological services worldwide will be improved through the application of science and technology developed in THORPEX. SIP personnel have also worked within NCAR to identify and develop societal impacts research needs and capabilities; obtain funding for a workshop in 2006 to develop a national THORPEX Societal and Economic Applications (SEA) research agenda; coordinate HFSEWG efforts with THORPEX SEA efforts to identify funding for related social science research, and serve on the THORPEX SEA Working Group (including the THORPEX Executive Board).
Plans for 2006
Results from the Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment will be available in early 2006 and presented at the 2006 AMS Annual Meeting in Atlanta. The assessment features a quantitative characterization of how much US economic output varies as a result of weather variation.
The HFSEWG Summary Paper, described above, is expected to be submitted for publication in the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. Five white papers written for the hurricane workshop held in Pomona, CA are to be published as a special issue of Natural Hazards Review. The white papers will also be presented and summarized at the AMS Annual Meeting.
SIP researchers will continue to 1) estimate the national value of improved weather forecasts on a project funded by the US THORPEX grants program; 2) develop and pre-test a draft survey instrument to elicit household’s values for improved hurricane forecast; and (3) undertake case studies of how individuals perceive, understand, and use probabilistic forecast information.
The second part of the WAS*IS Workshop will take place in March 2006. Given the magnitude of the initial response to the workshop announcement, additional workshops are being considered for Norman, OK (winter 2006) and at NCAR in Boulder, CO (summer 2006). Funding for future workshops has tentatively been offered by NCAR and NOAA.
Development of the Digital Library on Societal Impactswill continue with responsibility for maintaining and distributing the Extreme Weather Sourcebook and the WeatherZine newsletter moving to NCAR in 2006.
SIP researchers will continue to play a critical lead role in U.S. and international efforts on societal impacts assessment in the THORPEX program by hosting a U.S. workshop on developing a research agenda and chairing the THORPEX SEA Working Group.