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Executive Summary of Accomplishments in FY2003

RAP's research and development emphases are: in-flight icing; snowfall and freezing precipitation; convective weather forecasting; ceiling and visibility; atmospheric turbulence; numerical weather prediction; water resources; land-surface modeling; remote sensing; precipitation enhancement; oceanic weather; surface transportation; and verification. Significant technology transfer activities include formal acceptance by the FAA and NWS of the Operational Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS), the Forecast Icing Product, and the Graphical Turbulence Guidance algorithm; transfer of a variety of new modeling capabilities to DoD and DHS; and a road weather maintenance decision support system. In addition, RAP is leading strategic initiatives in the areas of Wildland Fire and Water Cycle Across Scales, co-leading the Geographic Information Systems initiative, and has significant involvement in the Weather and Climate Extremes Assessment initiative.

A. In-Flight Icing

In-flight icing research has been conducted at RAP for thirteen years, providing interesting and challenging studies in cloud physics, remote sensing, and mesoscale meteorology. The goal of this research is to develop more accurate and timely diagnoses and forecasts of conditions leading to ice accretion on aircraft during flight. A major milestone was reached this year with the operational acceptance, by the FAA and NWS, of the Forecast Icing Product (FIP) and of an experimental diagnosis of icing in Alaska (CIP-AK). These algorithms, which combine observational data with numerical weather model output using fuzzy logic techniques, have shown superior skill in diagnosing and forecasting locations of inflight icing conditions. Improvements to the MM5 and WRF models, particularly in the area of microphysical parameterizations to more accurately forecast cloud liquid, freezing drizzle and rain, continue to be made. Marcia Politovich leads this program. Collaborators include NOAA/ETL, the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), CSU, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, NASA Glenn Research Center, Radiometrics, Inc., and NCAR's MMM and ATD.

Achievements include:

1. Acceptance of the Forecast Icing Product (FIP) for operational use by the FAA and NWS.
2. Acceptance of the Alaska version of the Current Icing Forecast (CIP-AK) for experimental use.
3. Development of a 15-year climatology of supercooled large drop icing for Europe
4. Implementation of improvements in microphysics and boundary layer parameterizations for MM5.

 

B. Snowfall and Freezing Precipitation

RAP has a successful history of involvement with airport and aircraft operations dealing with the impact of snow and freezing precipitation. The operation of aircraft during snow and freezing rain or freezing drizzle conditions is a significant safety issue due to the rapid loss of lift and increase in drag produced by ice on aircraft. Snow and freezing rain accumulations on taxiways and runways also impact the safety and efficiency of ground operations. Collaborators include the Desert Research Institution (DRI), Texas A&M, Rutgers, Univ. of Quebec at Montreal, Univ. of Pecs, Hungary, United Airlines, and MMM.

Achievements include:

1. Commercialization of the hotplate precipitation gauge. This instrument, developed and patented by scientists at RAP and DRI, will be commercially produced and distributed by Yankee Environmental Systems.

2. Development of a new algorithm to monitor the NWS's Automated Surface Observing System (ASOS) icing sensor and issue advisories or alerts for freezing drizzle, a serious hazard to jet engines awaiting departure. Results of this research were published by C. Wade in the Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Meteorology.

3. Implementation of the Weather Support to Deicing Decision Makers (WSDDM) at Denver International Airport (DIA). This system will provide real-time winter weather information for operations at the airport.

C. Convective Weather Forecasting

Predicting the initiation, location, and dissipation of new convection 30 min to 2 h in advance is one of the challenges of convective weather forecasting. RAP conducts research and development efforts aimed at improving thunderstorm nowcasting systems on both the regional scale (the Autonowcaster [ANC]) and national-scale (National Convective Weather Forecast [NCWF]). Cindy Mueller leads this work. Collaborators include MIT/Lincoln Lab, the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command (ATEC), NOAA/NSSL, CSU, Univ. of Wisconsin, and MMM.

Achievements include:

1. Permanent installation of the ANC at the White Sands Missile Range in New Mexico as part of the ATEC program.

2. Participation in a collaborative demonstration of convective weather forecast products in Indiana and Illinois in the summer of 2003.

3. Enhancements to the Variational Doppler Radar Analysis System (VDRAS) so that it now runs efficiently on a larger, multi-radar domain. In the Regional Convective Weather Forecast (RCWF) field program last summer, VDRAS was robust, producing smooth wind analyses over a 600km x 550km domain at a resolution of 5km.

4. Development of a new technique for combining radar and satellite data to forecast convective storm initiation. This technique has been integrated into the ANC.

5. Analysis of International International H2O (IHOP) data for large convective storm systems demonstrated the inability of numerical models to correctly forecast which storms will produce gust fronts and what those fronts will look like.

 

D. Atmospheric Turbulence

RAP is involved in a number of research and development programs aimed at minimizing the number and severity of aircraft encounters with turbulence. Under the leadership of Bob Sharman and Larry Cornman, work continues to improve and implement methods for better measurements of turbulence, using in-situ instruments or remote sensing devices such as radar and lidar; and to develop, implement and verify automated forecasts of upper and mid-level aircraft-scale turbulence. RAP also continues to develop a Juneau Airport Wind System for the FAA; this effort is led by Bob Barron. Collaborators include NOAA/FSL, NASA, Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks and Anchorage, UCLA, Marquette, Univ. of Wyoming, Univ. of Oklahoma, Univ. of Colorado, MMM, ATD, and UOP/GST.

Achievements include:

1. Acceptance of the Graphical Turbulence Guidance (GTG) product for operational use by the NWS and FAA. (GTG is the new name for the Integrated Turbulence Forecasting Algorithm [ITFA]).

2. Enhancement, testing and verification of an on-board turbulence detection algorithm which is currently installed on over 100 United Airlines planes.

3. Development of an automated scoring algorithm that mimics the subjective human scoring previously used to assess the quality of the turbulence detection algorithm.

4. Conduct of a major scientific field program in Juneau, Alaska. Data were gathered from an Alaska Airlines 737, the Wyoming King Air, anemometers, profilers, and the Oklahoma Doppler on Wheels. Excellent measurements of air flow within and around complex terrain were obtained and are currently being analyzed.


E. Numerical Weather Prediction

Numerical weather prediction at RAP is focused on developing, testing, and implementing operational forecasting systems for new areas of the world. This entails better understanding of local dynamical processes through the use of special data, development of improved representations of physical processes in the models, and objectively verifying the skill of the models at predicting local meteorological processes. Tom Warner directs modeling activities within the division. Collaborators include the Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Utah, UCLA, CSU, and MMM.

Achievements include:

1. Development and testing of an ensemble prediction system for the US. Army Test and Evaluation Command which produces 10-hr forecasts using a 16-member ensemble with a 1-km grid increment.

2. Development of a GUI-relocatable version of the 4-dimensional weather (4DWX) MM5 model. This system called Global Meteorology on Demand (GlobalMOD) allows non-meteorologist users to set up and launch the operational modeling system anywhere in the world. GlobalMOD was used during Operation Enduring Freedom and in homeland security applications in Washington, D.C.

3. Adaptation of 4DWX for use in metropolitan area forecasting. The new capability was successfully tested during the Joint Urban 2003 field study in Oklahoma City.

4. Adaptation of VDRAS for the assimilation of Doppler lidar radial wind data. The new Variational Lidar Assimilation System (VLAS) produces gridded analyses and 30-minute forecasts of the complete wind field.

F. Water Resources

Water resource activities in 2003 were focused in the following areas: surface hydrology for urban flash flood autonowcasting; hydrologic and water resource assessment of rainfall enhancement benefits in the United Arab Emirates and the Sultanate of Oman; land-atmosphere interactions associated with the Cooperative Atmospheric Surface Exchange Study (CASES) and the International H2O (IHOP) experiment; municipal water and climate change studies; the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME); and distributed land surface modeling of large watersheds. David Yates and Tom Warner provide leadership for this effort. Collaborators include the USGS, Denver Urban Drainage and Flood Control District (UDFCD), Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Arizona, MMM and ESIG.

Achievements include:

1. Collaboration with the UDFCD in demonstrating the ability of Rap's Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting (TITAN) system to add radar-based, hydrometeorological information to its flood warning system.

2. Development of a methodology to analyze groundwater recharge processes in the UAE. This will be important in evaluating the impact of rainfall increases due to cloud seeding.

3. Enhancement of the Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP) to better accommodate hydrologic processes and to include a cost-benefit module.

4. Conduct of a new study to assess the potential for cloud seeding to enhance rainfall in the Sultanate of Oman.

5. Initiation, with ESIG, of a new effort to produce an educational report for the drinking water utility industry on the current state of understanding with regard to the impact of climate change on water supply and quality.

6. Participation in the NAME project's installation of a network of 80 automated raingauges in northern Mexico. Analysis of data from these gauges is providing new understanding, and improved ability to predict, streamflow and general availability of water in the region.

G. Land-Surface Modeling (LSM)

Through both theoretical and observational studies, RAP scientists work to understand the complex interactions (including biophysical, hydrological, and bio-geochemical interactions) between the land-surface and the atmosphere at micro- and meso-scales, and to improve land-surface models. The ultimate goal is to integrate such knowledge into numerical mesoscale weather prediction and regional climate models in order to improve prediction of the impacts of land-surface processes on regional weather, climate, and hydrology. Fei Chen directs this effort. Collaborators include the Univ. of Colorado, Oregon State, North Carolina State, Japan Atomic Research Institute, MMM, ATD, and ESIG.

Achievements include:

1. Organization of a WRF/LSM workshop at NCAR in June to define the implementation and testing strategy for the coupled Noah LSM system. NCEP, Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), NOAA, NCAR and a number of universities were represented.

2. Determination that the WRF/Noah LSM model forecasts significantly improved precipitation skill for the majority of rain categories.

3. Development of a High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) to support NWP models. The new system uses a variety of data to simulate the evolution of soil moisture.

4. Coupling an advanced one-layer urban canopy model with the Noah LSM for ultimate implementation into mesoscale models. This work is aimed at better understanding urban effects (e.g., "urban heat islands") on the atmosphere.

H. Remote Sensing

In efforts funded by the FAA, USWRP and the NCAR Water Cycle initiative, RAP has been actively involved in the development of techniques to retrieve drop-size distribution information from remote measurements made with polarimetric radars, and in development of new air motion-sensing techniques. Ed Brandes directs this work. Collaborators include NOAA/NSSL, CSU, and ATD.

Achievements include:

1. Development, in collaboration with NSSL, of an interferometric technique that uses a single antenna to measure both radial and transverse winds. Improvement of multi-parameter radar estimates of precipitation using a relationship between the shape of a gamma raindrop size distribution and the slope of the distribution.

2. Development of a theory for characterizing the accuracy of baseline winds, estimated using spaced antennas and a full correlation analysis method to process signals in the presence of noise.

3. Design of a new method for obtaining accurate, high-resolution liquid water content measurements from dual-wavelength radar data.


I. Precipitation Enhancement

In many regions of the world, particularly in arid or semi-arid lands, traditional sources and supplies of ground water, rivers and reservoirs are either inadequate or under threat from ever increasing water demands. This has prompted atmospheric scientists to explore the possibility of augmenting water supplies by means of cloud seeding. During FY2003, RAP scientists concluded a multi-year feasibility plan for cloud seeding in the UAE and implemented the second phase of the program, conducting a randomized cloud seeding experiment. Studies were also conducted on hygroscopic flare characteristics. Roelof Bruintjes directs this effort. Collaborators include Arizona State University; University of Witswatersrand, South Africa; South Dakota School of Mines; Al-Ain University, and MMM.

Achievements include:

1. Determination that aerosol concentrations are very high in the UAE (comparable to polluted and continental environments). Thus, clouds formed there are typically continental and colloidally stable, making them more likely to be successfully seeded.

2. Discovery that summer storms in northeastern UAE and over the Oman Mountains were of sufficient number and duration to make a cloud seeding program feasible.

3. Expansion of the radar network from two to five weather radars. Implementation of RAP's TITAN/CIDD software greatly expanded the data display and archival capabilities.

4. Implementation of the Radar Echo Classifier software to remove ground and sea clutter from the radar data, thus improving the radars' ability to correctly estimate rainfall.


J. Ceiling and Visibility

Adverse ceiling and visibility (C&V) conditions are a contributing factor in over 35% of all weather-related aviation accidents in the US and are a major cause of flight delays nationwide. RAP research directly addresses hazardous C&V conditions both on the national scale (NCV) and in the airport terminal area (TCV). The C&V program has also formed an effective collaboration with the FAA's Winter Weather Research Product Development Team in looking at C&V conditions in the northeastern U.S. Paul Herzegh and Wes Wilson lead the C&V program at NCAR. Collaborators include NRL, NOAA/FSL, MIT/Lincoln Laboratory, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Univ. of Quebec at Montreal.

Achievements include:

1. Approval of new National C&V analysis and forecast displays as FAA Test Products. This designation allows structured trials and evaluations by user groups.

2. Development of a new database of historical observations and corresponding forecast values at 1600 sites in the US.

3. Improvements in NCV infrastructure, particularly with regard to its ability to use satellite data, model runs, and NRL's cloud classification code.

4. Continued development of a heavily-instrumented field site at Brookhaven National Laboratory on Long Island for the Northeast Winter Ceiling and Visibility Project. An important focus is on acquiring, processing and understanding the measurement capabilities of the profiling microwave radiometer at the site.

5. Preparation of a fog climatology for the New York area. Fog events from 1977 to 1996 have been identified and their characteristics analyzed. A classification system reflecting the mechanisms producing them has been created.


K. Oceanic Weather

The Oceanic Weather program addresses the international need for better nowcasts and forecasts of weather-related aviation hazards in data-sparse oceanic regions. The program, sponsored by the FAA and led by Tenny Lindholm, works to develop products that forecast hazards associated with convection, clear air turbulence, and volcanic ash, as well as improved wind information to aid nowcasting, navigation and air traffic control. Collaborators include the Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, Univ. of Wisconsin, NRL, MIT/Lincoln Lab, and the NWS/Aviation Weather Center.

Achievements include:

1. Acceptance of the Cloud Top Height (CTH) display as a test product by the FAA this year. This designation allows structured trials and evaluations by user groups.

2. Implementation of a prototype data fusion system to diagnose the presence of deep convection. This convective diagnosis over the ocean combines three satellite-based diagnosis techniques.

3. Development of a new capability to interpret and graphically display aviation warning statements issued by countries around the world. This is an important step both in standardizing aviation warning statements globally and in developing a prototype for a volcanic ash warning system.

4. Collaboration with NASA's Advanced Satellite Aviation Weather Products (ASAP) program. RAP now acts as a bridge between NASA and the FAA, serving to ensure that satellite remote sensing data produced by NASA are integrated into aviation weather products developed by the FAA's Product Development Teams. Satellite data are clearly a critical input to the Oceanic Weather effort.


L. Surface Transportation

RAP has worked for the past three years to develop a prototype winter road Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS) for the Federal Highway Administration. The MDSS ingests, processes, and integrates existing road and weather data into a user-friendly display of current conditions, thus creating a decision support tool that provides recommendations on road maintenance courses of action and their anticipated consequences. A second surface transportation program, in railroad weather, focused on working with Union Pacific Railroad to understand how it uses weather information, what its unmet needs are, and what future research and development opportunities exist. Bill Mahoney, Bill Myers, and Rich Wagoner play key leadership roles in these programs. Collaborators include NOAA/ETL, FSL, NSSL; CRREL, MIT/Lincoln Lab, Federal Railroad Administration, and ESIG.

Achievements include:

1. Conduct of an 8-week field demonstration of MDSS for state highway routes in Iowa. A technical performance assessment and validation of the operational concept were successfully performed. Several new research areas were identified as critical to improving the MDSS.

2. A technical review of how Union Pacific Railroad uses weather information in its operations. A research agenda focusing on the railroad's highest priority need: mitigating railcar "blow overs" in high cross winds was established.

M. Verification

The RAP Verification Group continues to provide independent verification of improved aviation weather forecasting systems developed both at NCAR and at external laboratories. The group, in conjunction with the Verification Branch of NOAA/FSL, plays a key role in evaluating the forecasting capabilities of experimental products being considered for operational status by the NWS and the FAA. The group also works to develop new methods and approaches for verification. Barbara Brown directs the verification program at NCAR. Collaborators include NOAA/FSL, MMM, and ESIG.

Achievements include:

1. Conduct of the verification studies for the Forecast Icing Potential algorithm which was subsequently elevated to operational status by NWS and FAA.

2. Development of an object-oriented approach to verify quantitative precipitation forecasts.


Technology Transfer Programs

The application of scientific research to societal problems is at the heart of the RAP mission. Decision makers in a variety of agencies and weather-sensitive industries need improved weather information and tools, and RAP works to transfer new capabilities into their hands. Transfer of technologies to the aviation community continues to be a major emphasis with improved capability for the automated forecasting of aircraft icing, thunderstorms, snowfall affecting airport ground operations, turbulence, ceiling and visibility, and oceanic weather occurring each year. Other significant technology transfers have occurred within the context of RAP's work for the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security, as well as in surface transportation programs. Greg Thompson, Scott Swerdlin, and Bill Mahoney direct these technology transfer efforts.

Achievements include:

1. Approval of operational status for the Aviation Digital Data Service (ADDS) and the Flight Path Tool by the NWS and FAA. ADDS disseminates weather products to the aviation community via the Web. An Experimental ADDS which showcases new products still under development has also been approved.

2. Expansion of the sponsor base for the 4DWX system, originally developed for the US Army's Test and Evaluation Command.

3. Advances in high-performance, stable, cost-effective linux cluster computing program have been made. Backup capabilities are also supplied via the Global Meteorology on Demand (GMOD) tool which allows users to deploy model runs on backup clusters within seconds.

4. The Maintenance Decision Support System, described above under "Surface Transportation", represents an on-going effort to accelerate the time between research and market for new capabilities. To that end, components of the system are made available to the public on a non-exclusive basis via registry on the RAP web site.


NCAR Strategic Initiatives

RAP has made significant contributions to four NCAR initiatives: Water Cycle Across Scales, Wildland Fire Collaboratory, Geographic Information Systems, and the Weather and Climate Impact Assessment.

1. Water Cycle Across Scales

This initiative is focused on understanding the complex interactions among the processes that drive the hydrologic cycle. Participants include CGD, MMM, ATD, and RAP, with Roy Rasmussen of RAP leading the initiative. Research activities in FY03 focused on studies aimed at improving cloud microphysical parameterizations to improve mesoscale models' prediction of the atmospheric water cycle. An extensive study of IHOP data to help determine the 0-6 hr predictability of precipitation was begun. This study is focused on improving understanding of the factors controlling storm initiation and evolution, the predictability of the triggering mechanisms in storms, and an improved model capability to capture and forecast those factors controlling initiation and evolution. Work continues in land-atmosphere interactions with a focus on processing IHOP data; NASA satellite data are being compared with King Air flight data as well as with measurements from surface-tower stations. Simulations using the WRF/Noah LSM coupled modeling system are also being run for IHOP cases. Other LSM-related activities include an effort to use streamflow data to validate the High-Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS); development of a runoff database based on streamflow data from the USGS over the IHOP domain; and an investigation of the relationship between surface temperatures and land surface and soil moisture features.


2. Wildland Fire Collaboratory

Rich Wagoner leads this initiative. Participating divisions include ESIG, MMM, ATD, ACD, CGD and ASP. Fire-related research conducted by these divisions is documented in their respective sections of the ASR. The RAP effort continues to focus on building the Wildland Fire Collaboratory, an international forum for exchanging information relative to wildland fire research and development activities and for accelerating the transfer of knowledge and technology from the research community to the operational community. Extensive outreach to the wildfire community has resulted in the successful recruitment of a diverse group of federal laboratories and agencies, universities, and state forestry departments. Over the past year this group has worked to identify and prioritize the fire science and social science tasks that are needed to ultimately design and build decision support systems to implement the National Fire Plan. The group also co-sponsored an international workshop on fire weather in Melbourne, Australia, with the new Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre.


3. Geographic Information Systems

The GIS initiative, co-led by Terri Betancourt of RAP and Olga Wilhelmi of ESIG, is focused on supporting the use of GIS as both an analysis tool and an information system framework. To that end, work proceeds in four areas: education, training and user support; research enabled by GIS; data and web services; and research in GIS technology. A variety of research questions are under investigation to gain a better understanding of the needs of the GIS-user community, and to understand what GIS can offer the atmospheric science community with its legacy data and information systems. The work continues in evaluating the strengths of the two primary GIS technologies: OpenGIS and commercial products from Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI). Partnerships with ESRI, IBM, and the Open GIS Consortium, as well as collaborations with GIS experts at universities and national laboratories, have been established. In addition, a Special Interest Group of GIS users in the atmospheric sciences has been formed and is working to develop a community-based atmospheric data model.


4. Weather and Climate Impact Assessment

One aspect of the Weather and Climate Assessment Initiative concerns investigation of weather extremes. Two projects on this topic have involved RAP scientists. First, E. Gilleland, a RAP statistician, has developed a software toolkit to apply extreme value theory to weather and climate observations. This work has been coordinated by R. Katz of ESIG. In addition to the toolkit, Eric has developed a web-based tutorial to provide guidance to atmospheric scientists and others regarding the use and application of extreme value theory to their work. The second project concerns aviation weather extremes. This project will eventually consider a variety of types of aviation weather extremes, including in-flight icing conditions, large-scale turbulence, convection, and so on. The initial focus of the research has been in-flight icing and the application of statistical approaches to provide improved forecasts of this extreme weather phenomenon. M. Pocernich, a statistician in RAP, has undertaken this work and has successfully developed an approach to improve the interpretation of icing signals in sets of icing-related observations and numerical weather predictions The next phase of this work will involve similar applications to observations from icing research aircraft, followed by applications of extreme value approaches to convection. Several convection-related research problems (e.g., identifying storms that will become severe) have been identified for possible application of extreme value theory approaches as part of this study.

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