L. Intelligent Weather Systems
[Background] [US
Army - Meteorological Measuring Set]
[Road Weather – Maintenance Decision Support System]
[Advanced, Integrated Weather Forecast System]
For several years NCAR/RAP has explored the concept of blending real-time observational data with other data such as model output, climatological, and statistical data to improve results. This design paradigm has been labeled as an Intelligent Weather System (IWS) method. The first operational demonstration of this concept using a fuzzy logic integration process occurred during the Hong Kong project (1994-1998) when RAP scientists and engineers significantly improved the quality and timeliness of wind data derived from wind profilers operating in the challenging environment of Hong Kong harbor. More recently, the use of the IWS approach has proven successful in additional research and development activities at RAP. In this section, three examples of the use of IWS technology are presented.
NCAR's Research Applications Program is collaborating with Pennsylvania State University and the Environmental Technology Group Corporation to develop a Meteorological Measuring Set - Profiler (MMS-P) system for the United States Army. The MMS-P system is deployable worldwide and produces highly accurate state of the atmosphere data in a 250 by 250 by 30-kilometer grid.
The MMS-P system units are deployed in an electronics shelter mounted on the back of a standard US Army Humvee. The MMS-P uses local radiosondes, a surface measurement station, and satellite receivers to collect data that is fed into a local MM5 atmospheric model and fuzzy logic data fusion processor to produce the state of the atmosphere data.
The wind, temperature, humidity, precipitation, and other data from the MMS-P system can be used for a variety of defense applications including improved fire control systems that help to minimize collateral civilian damage as well as chemical or biological dispersion plume modeling.
In 2000, NCAR/RAP began working with the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), Office of Transportation Operations (HOTO) Road Weather Management Program to develop a comprehensive set of requirements for surface transportation weather. These activities led to the FHWA Surface Transportation Weather Decision Support Requirements (STWDSR) initiative. In 2001, six national research centers were selected to participate in the development of the prototype Maintenance Decision Support System (MDSS). The participating national labs are the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL), NCAR, Lincoln Laboratory (MIT/LL), National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL), Environmental Technology Laboratory (ETL), and Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL). NCAR/RAP was designated as the technical lead for the project.
The objective of the MDSS effort is to produce a prototype tool for
decision support to winter road maintenance managers. While it is
recognized that other such tools exist and are under development,
there is an important feature of MDSS that makes it unique. The MDSS
is based on leading diagnostic and prognostic weather research capabilities
and road behavior (surface and subsurface), which are being developed
at national research centers. It is anticipated that components of
the prototype MDSS system developed by this project will ultimately
be deployed by road operating agencies, including state departments
of transportation (DOTs), and generally supplied by private vendors.
The MDSS project goal is to develop a prototype capability that: a) capitalizes on existing road and weather data sources, b) augments data sources where they are weak, c) fuses data to make an open, integrated and understandable presentation of current environmental and road conditions, d) processes data to generate diagnostic and prognostic maps of road conditions along road corridors, e) provides a display capability on the state of the roadway, f) provides a decision support tool which provides recommendations on road maintenance courses of action, and f) provides all of the above on a single platform, and does so in a readily comprehensible display of results and recommended courses of action, together with anticipated consequences of action or inaction.
In 2002, NCAR/RAP, with support from the other participating laboratories, will build a functional prototype MDSS and release the technology to the surface transportation community.
4. Advanced, Integrated Weather Forecast System
In 1999, NCAR/RAP contracted with a large private weather firm to develop an automated weather forecasting system utilizing intelligent weather system technology. The requirement was to build a system that: a) provides timely, accurate worldwide forecasts, b) is dynamic and modular so as to adapt to a rapidly changing forecast environment, c) is applicable to a wide variety of forecast problems, d) uses state-of-the-art scientific and engineering principles, and e) requires only modest computing systems and common data sources. The forecast system was completed and delivered in October 2000, generates 1 to10-day forecasts at more than 26,000 sites worldwide, and is used by more than 50 million users per day.
Ongoing
improvements to the forecast system technology are being made by NCAR/RAP.
In 2001, the core technology was reengineered so that it could be
applied to a broader set of applications including surface transportation
weather, energy markets, and weather derivative trading.
The Weather Forecast System ingests raw or processed weather data. It generates an ensemble of forecasts by applying a forecast generation technique to each data set. The forecast integrator does a fuzzy-logic intelligent combination of this ensemble of forecasts. The resultant forecasts then undergo quality control checks before they are exported. The system generates a new set of forecasts every three hours. Each new set of forecasts contains predictions for the next 60 hours. The interval between forecast data points is three hours out to the 60-hour limit. Hourly data can be generated if necessary by interpolation. The system runs on a single stand-alone computer system with a connection to the internet for receiving input data and optionally distributing the end products.
The system uses a variety of freely available data from the NWS. These data consist of observational data (METARs, synoptic reports), NWS MOS products from NOAAPort received via the LDM, and NCEP model grids available on the NCEP ftp server. The system has demonstrated significant skill over NWS MOS guidance and climatology.